Catalysts & Setups · Daily
Most lists of stocks to watch are a mood with tickers attached. We work the other way round. A share price moves when something forces it to: a dated event, a thin supply of stock, or positioning that has to be unwound. We describe those conditions, and the fact that would make the idea wrong.
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The Conditions
Three conditions account for most large single-name moves. The rest of the coverage around a ticker is volume.
Earnings, guidance updates, regulatory decisions, trial readouts, contract awards, index rebalances, lockup and option expiries — events that have a date on a calendar and a limited range of outcomes.
How many shares actually trade, how thin the book is around them, and how much stock is sold short — the mechanics that turn ordinary demand into an outsized price change, or absorb it without a flicker.
Consensus estimates, the move implied by options, open interest, and crowding. Prices respond to the gap between expectation and outcome, not to the outcome on its own.
Inside Each Issue
One name with a dated event, not a watchlist of twenty tickers and a shrug.
Free float, average daily volume, and short interest, taken from filings and exchange data.
The implied move and the consensus number, so you can see what the event has to beat.
When the event lands, and how long similar events usually take to resolve into a price.
Most setups never fire. Saying so before the fact is more useful than explaining it after.
If anyone connected to a company we mention paid us, it says so at the top of the issue.
Method
A confirmed date from the company, the exchange, or the regulator.
Float, volume, and borrow — can ordinary flow actually move this quote?
Consensus and the implied move, read against the plausible range of outcomes.
The fact that would end the thesis, written down before the event, not after.
Editorial Position
We describe conditions, not outcomes. A stock in position to move can move in either direction, and volatility cuts both ways with equal force. Everything we publish is a description of conditions that have historically preceded large moves in similar situations. None of it is a forecast of direction, and none of it is a statement that a move will happen at all.
We publish no scoreboard and no claims about how our analysis has performed, because that genre of marketing is where this corner of financial publishing usually goes wrong. Anyone who tells you in advance which way a stock will break on an earnings date is describing a coin flip in confident prose.
We also avoid the promotional end of the market. Thinly traded names are easy to write about loudly and hard to exit quietly, and much of the enthusiasm around them is paid for. Where we have been compensated in any way connected to a company we cover, that appears at the top of the issue, not in the footer.
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